Recent publications
Lovable, the Fastest-Growing Company Ever?
A Swedish startup reached half a billion dollars of run-rate in nineteen months, on intelligence it does not own, and is now reported to be raising at $13.2 billion. The record and what the price implies, the business model and what it rents, whether the moat holds when the models belong to someone else, how it stands against its peers, and what return is left at $13.2 billion. An examination, not a recommendation.
Market Timing Game
Investors face many decisions. One of the most consequential is whether to attempt to time the market or to keep a buy-and-hold strategy. This game lets you experiment with market timing on real-world securities, and reach your own conclusion about how it performs against buying and holding.
Play as a guest, or create an account to keep your record: your own statistics, how every player has performed, and your place on the leaderboard.
Equity Watchlist
The thousand most relevant listed companies in the world on one screen. Sort by return, size, sector, currency, volatility or drawdown, and open any name for its price history, rebased to 100 or as an actual share price.
H1 2026 Investment Portfolio Cockpit Report
How the main markets, sectors, countries, currencies, rates and credit behaved through the first half of 2026, with seven classic model portfolios read as references. An examination, not a recommendation.
The Mistral Mystery: How Much is the European AI Champion Worth?
Four funding rounds, three years, not one published revenue figure: Mistral is the rare frontier AI company that keeps its numbers to itself. In June 2026, reports put its next valuation near €20 billion. A discreet history, what the company sells and to whom, what €20 billion implies against its American and Chinese peers, and how much information an investment decision really needs.
Project Prometheus: from zero to $41 billion in 7 months
A Socratic examination of whether a seven-month-old company with no product and no disclosed revenue can be worth $41 billion. The piece treats the price not as a valuation but as an option premium, and works through it input by input: the physical-AI thesis, the bet on Bezos, the audacious plan to own industrial data by owning the companies, the Blue Origin record, the bubble question, and the size of the prize.
Is the SpaceX IPO Valuation Really That Stupid?
A Socratic examination of the largest IPO ever, and whether $1.75 trillion is a number to mock or to understand. The offering prices around $135 a share to raise roughly $75 billion, listing on Nasdaq as SPCX. What the price is a claim on, the Google and Anthropic compute deals, why a trailing revenue multiple misleads, the price-discovery and index-inclusion debate, the curse of the new listing, founder control, and the questions worth answering.
Is Anthropic worth $965 billion?
A Socratic examination of the question every potential investor in this round should ask. The Series H closed on 28 May 2026 at $965 billion post-money. Revenue and the $47 billion disclosed run-rate, the funding trajectory through Series H, the SpaceX compute deal, the void-shares notice, the DoD dispute, the AI-flation signals, the criticism of the reported metrics, and the four regimes for the next decade.
